Comparación del valor pronóstico de mortalidad del Score Child Pugh y los modelos de pronóstico de enfermedad hepática crónica en pacientes con cirrosis hepática descompensada del Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia, Lima-Perú / Comparison of the prognostic value of mortality Child Pugh Score and forecasting models of chronic liver disease in patients with decompensated cirrhosis of the Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia, Lima-Peru

La valoración del pronóstico es una parte esencial en la evaluación de todo paciente con cirrosis hepática. En la actualidad se sigue desarrollando nuevos modelos para optimizar la precisión del pronóstico de mortalidad que se calcula mediante el score Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) y el modelo para la enfermedad hepática en etapa terminal (MELD). Objetivo: Comparar la precisión pronóstica de mortalidad hospitalaria y mortalidad a corto plazo del CTP, MELD y demás modelos en pacientes con cirrosis hepática descompensada. Material y Métodos: Estudio descriptivo prospectivo, el cual incluyó 84 pacientes. El score CTP, MELD y demás modelos fueron calculados en el primer día de hospitalización. La precisión pronóstica de mortalidad se evaluó mediante el área bajo la curva ROC (AUROCs) del score CTP, MELD y los demás modelos. Resultados: La mortalidad hospitalaria y la mortalidad en el seguimiento a corto plazo fue de 20 (23,8%) y 44 (52,4%), respectivamente. Los AUROCs del CTP, MELD, MELD Na, MESO, iMELD, RefitMELD y RefitMELD Na para predecir mortalidad hospitalaria fue de 0,4488, 0,5645, 0,5426, 0,5578, 0,5719, 0,5598 y 0,5754; y para predecir mortalidad a corto plazo fue de 0,5386, 0,5747, 0,5770, 0,5781, 0,5631, 0,5881 y 0,5693, respectivamente. Al comparar entre si los AUROCs del score CTP, MELD y demás modelos ninguno mostró ser mejor que el otro (p>0,05). Conclusiones: El presente estudio no ha demostrado la utilidad predictiva del score CTP, MELD y los otros modelos (MELD Na, MESO, iMELD, Refit MELD y Refit MELD Na) para la evaluar la mortalidad hospitalaria o mortalidad a corto plazo en una muestra de pacientes con cirrosis hepática descompensada del Hospital Cayetano Heredia...

Introduction: The assessment of prognosis is an essential part of the evaluation of all patients with liver cirrhosis. Currently continues to develop new models to optimize forecast accuracy mortality score is calculated by the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD). Objective: Compare the prognostic accuracy of hospital mortality and short-term mortality CTP, MELD and other models in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis. Material and Methods: Prospective descriptive study, comparison type of diagnostic test that included 84 patients. The score CTP, MELD and other models were calculated on the first day of hospitalization. The prognostic accuracy of mortality was assessed by the area under the ROC curve (AUROCs) of score CTP, MELD and other models. Results: Hospital mortality and mortality in the short-term monitoring was 20 (23.8%) and 44 (52.4%), respectively. The AUROCs CTP, MELD, MELD Na, MESO, iMELD, RefitMELD and RefitMELD Na to predict hospital mortality was 0.4488, 0.5645, 0.5426, 0.5578, 0.5719, 0.5598 and 0.5754; and to predict short-term mortality was 0.5386, 0.5747, 0.5770, 0.5781, 0.5631, 0.5881 and 0.5693, respectively. By comparing each AUROCs of the CTP score, MELD and other models proved to be no better than the other (p>0.05). Conclusion: This study has not shown the predictive utility of the CTP score, MELD and other models (MELD Na, MESO, iMELD, Refit Refit MELD and MELD Na) to evaluate hospital mortality or short-term mortality in a sample of patients with decompensated cirrhosis of the Hospital Cayetano Heredia...

[Comparison of the prognostic value of mortality Child Pugh Score and forecasting models of chronic liver disease in patients with decompensated cirrhosis of the Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia, Lima-Peru]. / Comparación del valor pronóstico de mortalidad del Score Child Pugh y los modelos de pronóstico de enfermedad hepática crónica en pacientes con cirrosis hepática descompensada del Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia, Lima-Perú.

INTRODUCTION: The assessment of prognosis is an essential part of the evaluation of all patients with liver cirrhosis. Currently continues to develop new models to optimize forecast accuracy mortality score is calculated by the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD). OBJECTIVE: Compare the prognostic accuracy of hospital mortality and short-term mortality CTP, MELD and other models in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prospective descriptive study, comparison type of diagnostic test that included 84 patients. The score CTP, MELD and other models were calculated on the first day of hospitalization. The prognostic accuracy of mortality was assessed by the area under the ROC curve (AUROCs) of score CTP, MELD and other models. RESULTS: Hospital mortality and mortality in the short-term monitoring was 20 (23.8%) and 44 (52.4%), respectively. The AUROCs CTP, MELD, MELD Na, MESO, iMELD, RefitMELD and RefitMELD Na to predict hospital mortality was 0.4488, 0.5645, 0.5426, 0.5578, 0.5719, 0.5598 and 0.5754; and to predict short-term mortality was 0.5386, 0.5747, 0.5770, 0.5781, 0.5631, 0.5881 and 0.5693, respectively. By comparing each AUROCs of the CTP score, MELD and other models proved to be no better than the other (p>0.05). CONCLUSION: This study has not shown the predictive utility of the CTP score, MELD and other models (MELD Na, MESO, iMELD, Refit Refit MELD and MELD Na) to evaluate hospital mortality or short-term mortality in a sample of patients with decompensated cirrhosis of the Hospital Cayetano Heredia.

Mortalidad y readmisión en pacientes cirróticos hospitalizados en un hospital general de Lima, Perú / Mortality and readmission in hospitalized cirrhotic patients in a General Hospital from Lima, Peru

La cirrosis hepática es un problema de salud pública. En el Perú, es la primera causa de muerte dentro de las enfermedades hepáticas. Además, los pacientes con enfermedad hepática crónica y cirrosis tienen mayor riesgo para readmisión. Objetivos: Determinar la frecuencia de mortalidad y readmisión a los 3 meses, así como las características epidemiológicas-clínicas de los pacientes cirróticos hospitalizados en un hospital general. Materiales y métodos: Se recolectaron prospectivamente los datos de los pacientes cirróticos hospitalizados en el Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Perú, desde octubre 2011 a octubre 2012, el seguimiento fue vía telefónica a los 3 meses luego del alta hospitalaria. Resultados: El estudio incluyó 96 pacientes. La edad media fue 59,2 años. La etiología de cirrosis más frecuente fue alcohol (45,8%) y el principal motivo de hospitalización fue hemorragia digestiva alta (29,2%). La mortalidad total fue 39,6% (n: 38), de la cual 63,2% (24/38) fue hospitalaria, siendo la causa principal el choque séptico con 31,5% (12/38). De los fallecidos 44,7% presentó infección como complicación. La readmisión hospitalaria fue 42,8% (33/77) y de ellos, falleció el 36,3 % (12/33). Conclusión: Los pacientes cirróticos hospitalizados presentaron una alta mortalidad a los 3 meses; estos pacientes al alta hospitalaria revelaron una elevada readmisión en los 3 meses de seguimiento...

Liver cirrhosis is a public health problem. In Peru, is the leading cause of death in liver diseases. In addition, patients with chronic liver disease and cirrhosis are at increased risk for readmission. Objectives: To determine the frequency of mortality and readmission at 3 months, and clinical-epidemiological characteristics of hospitalized cirrhotic patients in a general hospital. Materials and methods: Data were collected prospectively of hospitalized cirrhotic patients in the Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru, from October 2011 to October 2012; telephone follow-up was at 3 months after hospital discharge. Results: The study included 96 patients. The mean age was 59.2 years. The most common etiology of cirrhosis was alcohol (45.8%) and the main reason for hospitalization was upper gastrointestinal bleeding (29.2%). Global mortality was 39.6% (38 patients), from them, 63.2% (24/38) were inpatients, its main cause was septic shock 31.5% (12/38). Forty-four percent of the deceased had infection as complication. Hospital readmission was 42.8% (33/77) and 36.3% of them died. Conclusions: Hospitalized cirrhotic patients showed high mortality at 3 months, these patients at discharge revealed a high readmission within 3 months of follow up...

[Mortality and readmission in hospitalized cirrhotic patients in a General Hospital from Lima, Peru]. / Mortalidad y readmisión en pacientes cirróticos hospitalizados en un hospital general de Lima, Perú

UNLABELLED: Liver cirrhosis is a public health problem. In Peru, is the leading cause of death in liver diseases. In addition, patients with chronic liver disease and cirrhosis are at increased risk for readmission. OBJECTIVES: To determine the frequency of mortality and readmission at 3 months, and clinical-epidemiological characteristics of hospitalized cirrhotic patients in a general hospital. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data were collected prospectively of hospitalized cirrhotic patients in the Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia,Lima,Peru, from October 2011 to October 2012; telephone follow-up was at 3 months after hospital discharge. RESULTS: The study included 96 patients. The mean age was 59.2 years. The most common etiology of cirrhosis was alcohol (45.8%) and the main reason for hospitalization was upper gastrointestinal bleeding (29.2%). Global mortality was 39.6% (38 patients), from them, 63.2% (24/38) were inpatients, its main cause was septic shock 31.5% (12/38). Forty-four percent of the deceased had infection as complication. Hospital readmission was 42.8% (33/77) and 36.3% of them died. CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalized cirrhotic patients showed high mortality at 3 months, these patients at discharge revealed a high readmission within 3 months of follow up.